SINCE 2007 we’ve been saying the next political year can’t possibly be as tumultuous as the one just ending, and for each of those eight years we have been wrong. Dead wrong.
So with some boldness, one could forecast that 2016 will be free of the drama which surrounded five prime ministerships, ended in coups or elections, and might even be predictable.
The dominant issues will be obvious, as will the broad electorate’s appetite for a policy debate.
This is what might happen:
Relax, the Islamic State threat won’t be this boofhead’s problem to solve.Source:AP
IT WON’T BE TRUMP VS. ISLAMIC STATE
Let’s get this out of the way first. The “Middle East swamp” will continue to reek of blood and to defy navigation by Western allies. Military and public opinion will be against a major deployment of forces to Iraq/Syria because no one can explain how it would eliminate the threat of Islamic State terrorism. And there will be further testimony the danger could be worsened. In November, the new president of the United States — who will not be Donald Trump — will have a major choice to make between isolationism and Mideast activism. And we will follow.
Trump heckled repeatedly at campaign event
The government has to fix the tax system, but it won’t be done via your shopping trolley. Picture: Mark Cranitch.
GST WON’T GO UP
The GST will not be increased or spread to other goods and services. There was simply no way to compensate lower income earners, and there was no sustainable argument for putting the tax on essentials such as fresh food. States will be required to take greater responsibility for
revenue while ending taxes that impede employment.
The federal tax system will be altered to reduce sectional handouts, and the wealthy
will no longer be able to use the superannuation system as a tax minimisation device rather than for retirement savings.
He might very well lose the election, but don’t expect Bill Shorten to lose his job. Picture: Mark EvansSource:News Corp Australia
SHOCK! BILL SHORTEN WILL BECOME INTERESTING
Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will take Labor into the election campaign amid strong speculation he will emerge at the other end still the Opposition Leader. Mr Shorten’s opinion poll standing might not be inspiring, but Labor has twice removed leaders in recent years without getting the hang of it and won’t want to try a third. Mr Shorten will battle to the end, as he has promised, and the contest between the former trade union leader and the former merchant banker will be fascinating.
7.30 host Leigh Sales famously put a pompous Malcolm Turnbull in his place on national TV last week. He should take it as a warning. Picture: ABCSource:ABC
THE TABLES WILL TURN ON TURNBULL
Malcolm Turnbull’s post-Abbott high in opinion polls will dissipate as he wrestles with huge issues of economic management and national security. Some voters might even find him a touch pompous. However, his personal ratings will not fall to those of his predecessor and he
and his office will maintain a sense of competence. He will hire a speech writer able to trim his verbosity, and he will realise sarcasm does not become obvious in the cold print of Hansard.
Tony Abbott: Tell him he’s dreamin’.Source:AP
TONY WILL FINALLY STOP DELUDING HIMSELF
The Liberal Party civil war will start to bore voters and anger senior party members. Tony Abbott’s band of holdouts will end up largely talking to themselves. Mr Abbott himself will get the message that a comeback is the stuff of dreams. If he stands again in Warringah it will be billed as a rearguard action to protect his legacy, or to act as a senior mentor for right-wing MPs, or to possibly resume a seat in cabinet. It also might be because he hasn’t received a better
offer.
Treasurer Scott Morrison better make it good.Source:AAP
WE’LL VOTE WITH OUR WALLETS
The general election will be held in September or October, as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has said. Which means the election campaign will begin seconds after Treasurer Scott Morrison delvers the Budget in May.
It will be an election on economic policy. Voters know something needs fixing during the economic transition and will be attentive to the policy contest.
Climate policy will become crystal clear. Not.Source:Supplied
THE CLIMATE SPIN WILL BE EPIC
Environment Minister Greg Hunt will start suggesting the next step in climate change policy should be a market-based system of emission trading. This will be depicted as the logical next step after what Mr Hunt will say was the success of Direct Action, which is the opposite
of a market-based system. Mr Hunt will be in a particularly small group whose members believe
Direct Action was a triumph.
Ian MacFarlane. Let’s see how this pans out. Pictures: Jack TranSource:News Corp Australia
THE BITTER TRUTH WILL SINK IN FOR MACCA
In January, Ian Macfarlane, the Liberal defector, will realise he didn’t get as many Christmas cards as last year.
[Source:-abc news]