Buy Bajaj Finance; target of Rs 3860: Prabhudas Lilladher

We initiate coverage on Bajaj Finance (BAF) with a BUY given formidable franchise in consumer financing, strong growth momentum in rural finance and expected uptick in mortgage business post spin off in step down subsidiary. BAF has emerged strong in the recent NBFC rout given 1) <2% GNPA and 65-70% PCR across cycles, avg. 40% positive ALM gap in short maturity buckets and diversified liability mix. We believe a CAGR of 31% in AUM and stable asset quality will enable 32% PAT CAGR over FY19-21. We expect premium valuations to sustain given ROA and ROE of 3.7%/20.1%, lower ALM risk and strong retail presence in consumer segment.

Outlook

We assign P/ABV multiple of 6.9x FY21E to arrive at price target of Rs 3,860.

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